What will home sales look like in 2024

What will home sales look like in the first half of 2024?

Thursday, January 11, 2024 Economic forecast 

Under the hood, 2024 is poised to be a growth year for the residential market across the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s areas.

Fundamental factors that drive our market, such as household formation, population growth, and employment growth remain fairly strong despite continued concerns of potentially slower economic growth ahead.

With that said, a key ingredient that drives market participation, which many had become accustomed to over the past ten years or so, is still notably lacking at the time of publication: ultra-low mortgage rates.

While inflation no longer looms as the immediate threat it was in early 2023, core measures of inflation have been declining too slowly for the Bank of Canada to consider aggressively lowering their policy rate in the short-term.

What does this mean for the market in the first half of 2024? Check our forecast to find out.

Key highlights Economic growth and interest rates: Despite concerns about potential slower economic growth, fundamental factors such as household formation, population growth, and employment remain strong. However, the absence of ultra-low interest rates, due to slower-than-expected inflation decline, is a key factor influencing market participation.

Borrowing costs and sales: Interest rates are the primary wildcard for sales activity in 2024, and our forecast analyzes a few plausible scenarios.

Housing affordability: Even with elevated borrowing costs, we anticipate continued price escalation in 2024, driven by near-record-low inventory levels.

Source: REBGV